by Brouse and Mukherjee
Foreword by Daniel Brouse, April 2025
This paper represents the culmination of decades of observation, analysis, and urgent inquiry. As both climate and economic systems edge toward collapse, I examine the accelerating timeline of the climate crisis and the self-inflicted vulnerabilities of the U.S. economy. Together, these forces form a convergence point--one that could define not just the future of the United States, but the trajectory of global civilization.
Abstract
Me:
David:
Me: I. Climate Change: From Hypothesis to Imminent Catastrophe In the 1990s, we proposed a hypothesis: that climate change would not follow a linear trajectory but would instead accelerate non-linearly--driven by feedback loops such as polar ice melt, permafrost thaw, ocean acidification, and carbon release from soil and forests. Over the following decades, this hypothesis evolved into an established scientific theory, now widely accepted by the international scientific community. Through collaboration with a physicist from Ohio State University, we observed a startling trend in the “doubling time” of climate impacts. Originally pegged at around 100 years, this timeframe has since shrunk to 10 years, and now--alarmingly--approaches just 2. That means climate-related damages could be 64 times worse a decade from now than they are today. These aren't worst-case scenarios; they are conservative models assuming no further acceleration. Our latest models integrate not only geophysical systems but also social, political, and economic feedback loops. The results are grim: we now forecast a potential 9°C rise in global temperatures within this century--a rate that would make much of the planet uninhabitable and render large-scale human migration and system failure unavoidable. II. A New Threat Emerges: Trumpenomics and the War on Global Stability Ironically, the Trump administration--through its aggressive trade, credit, and isolationist policies--has accelerated the very breakdown of capitalism that climate change is expected to cause. The imposition of widespread tariffs, especially those based on falsified “reciprocal” trade deficits, has triggered not just a trade war, but a credit war. This combination has never before been tested in modern economic history. During Trump's first term, the stage was set. Now, in his second term, the global economy is being subjected to a real-time, uncontrolled experiment. The administration's “drill, baby, drill” energy policy, paired with unprecedented regulatory rollbacks, has only deepened the climate crisis. Yet, from an economic systems perspective, it is the trade and credit dislocations that may deliver the first major blow. III. Global Trade, Capital Flows, and the Liquidity Death Spiral Most people think of tariffs as mere taxes on goods. But in today's complex financial system, their impact extends far beyond the shipping yard. When the U.S. imports less, foreign exporters earn fewer dollars. This reduces their ability to invest in U.S. Treasuries--the bedrock of the global financial system. As demand for Treasuries falls, yields rise, borrowing costs spike, and credit conditions tighten. This sets off a self-reinforcing liquidity crisis, undermining everything from consumer lending to corporate investment. The risk is real and growing: a scenario where the U.S. dollar loses its global reserve status is no longer the stuff of academic theory. Should this occur, the fallout would include: Exploding U.S. borrowing costs A collapse in consumer purchasing power Capital flight from U.S. markets Severe contraction in both trade and credit Domestic political and social unrest on a scale not seen in modern history IV. The Tipping Point: Will Climate Collapse or Economic Collapse Win the Race? The economic trajectory of the U.S. under Trump's policies suggests that a post-capitalist transition may be triggered by domestic fiscal instability rather than climate catastrophe alone. In other words, the United States may be the first nation to economically implode under the dual weight of environmental and self-inflicted economic collapse. Complicating matters, the U.S. is simultaneously dealing with aging infrastructure, mounting national debt, deteriorating public health, climate-related disasters, and rising political extremism--all of which erode resilience and reduce the chances of a coordinated national response. This raises a chilling question: Will the collapse of the U.S. economy accelerate faster than climate change itself--or are we already too late to avoid either fate?
The U.S. dollar's decline from global dominance -- driven by unprecedented political dysfunction and fiscal recklessness -- is unraveling the myth of American exceptionalism. Once the cornerstone of international finance, the United States now risks becoming a net liability to the world economy. Paradoxically, this economic unraveling may carry a sliver of hope. If Trump's economic collapse marks the end of mass consumption, over-leveraged capitalism, and fossil fuel dependency, it could trigger a sharp drop in global emissions and slow the pace of climate change. Such a forced degrowth scenario--where contraction curbs carbon output--might buy humanity precious time to adapt, innovate, and survive. But this path would come at a steep cost: to livelihoods, political stability, and America's standing in the world.
Conclusion: What Comes After? Regardless of which crisis arrives first, one outcome is increasingly likely: the U.S. standard of living will fall sharply, and life expectancy may follow. Whether that post-collapse society can still be sustainable--or even enjoyable--will depend on the decisions we make in the next few years. Our only hope is to treat this as a true “race against time” and respond with urgency, humility, and collective will. The future depends not just on science and economics, but on whether we can choose survival over ideology, cooperation over conflict, and truth over convenience.
URGENT CLIMATE WARNING
At this level of heating, large regions of the planet will become uninhabitable due to extreme heat, sea level rise, agricultural collapse, and mass migration. Critically, parts of the U.S. are already experiencing wet-bulb temperatures approaching or exceeding 31°C (87.8°F) -- a physiological limit beyond which the human body can no longer regulate its internal temperature, even in the shade with ample water.
This is no longer a distant threat. The climate system is entering a phase of compound risk and cascading collapse -- and we are already seeing the early signs.
Immediate, radical mitigation and adaptation efforts are now essential to preserve habitable zones, food systems, and public health.
Humanity stands at a historic crossroads where the accelerating pace of climate change threatens to overtake both our capacity for response and the viability of the global economic system itself. Recent models indicate that without immediate intervention, climate change could cause the collapse of capitalism as we know it--potentially as soon as 2050. At the same time, U.S. political developments--particularly Trump-era trade, fiscal, and environmental policies--may unintentionally hasten this collapse. The central question becomes: Will the U.S. economic system implode before climate change forces its hand, or has irreversible damage already been done?
David:
"Fascinating -- a lot to think about and consider. Thank you."
"It's definitely a lot to process. It feels like two chaotic subsystems crashing into each other... almost like the cosmic violence of colliding black holes."
"Yes, but at least black holes are natural phenomena -- they're supposed to exist."
"Tragically, these are two systems of our own making -- now steered by a man blinded by ignorance and arrogance."
Our latest climate model -- now incorporating complex social-ecological feedback loops within a dynamic, non-linear system -- projects that global temperatures could rise by up to 9°C (16.2°F) within this century. This far exceeds earlier estimates, which predicted a 4°C rise over the next thousand years, and signals a dramatic acceleration of warming.
Climate Collapse Will Break Capitalism
Broken: Deviation, Cracked Fractals, Climate, and Economics
The Decline of Economic Power and the Ascent of Environmental Reality
The Destructive Legacy of Trump's Climate and Economic Policies
Trumpenomics: The Decline of the US
State of the Climate Crisis 2025
Updates